⚠️ PRIME DIRECTIVE: SURVIVAL
The Law: Any action with >1.0% probability of irreversible ruin (Absorbing Barrier) is FORBIDDEN. Regardless of Expected Value (EV).
Reasoning: You cannot compound from zero.
1. Introduction to SDR
The Structural Disadvantage Ratio (SDR) quantifies the friction working against a position.
If SDR > 5:1, the trade is structurally doomed over N > 100 iterations.
2. The Absorbing Barrier
We operate in Time Probability, not Ensemble Probability. If you hit the Absorbing Barrier (Zero), the game ends.
3. Logic Flow: The Guardian Check
Before any capital deployment, the following logic gate executes:
graph TD
A[Opportunity Identified] --> B(Check Ergodicity)
B -->|Blows up in N<100| C[HARD REJECT]
B -->|Survives N=100| D(Calculate SDR)
D -->|SDR > 3.0| E[REDUCE SIZE]
D -->|SDR < 3.0| F[EXECUTE]
style C fill:#500,stroke:#f00
style F fill:#050,stroke:#0f0
4. Diagnostic Tooling
Automated Pre-Trade Output
Below is a standardized output from the Guardian Module for a rejected trade.
[ALERT] LAW #1 VIOLATION
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TARGET: BTC-PERP-10x
UPSIDE: +20%
DOWNSIDE: -100% (Liquidation)
PROB(RUIN): 40% (within 20 steps)
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RECOMMENDATION: ABORT IMMEDIATELY
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TARGET: BTC-PERP-10x
UPSIDE: +20%
DOWNSIDE: -100% (Liquidation)
PROB(RUIN): 40% (within 20 steps)
---------------------------------
RECOMMENDATION: ABORT IMMEDIATELY
5. The Philosophy of Time Probability
The Guardian allows us to underperform the "Hero" in the bull market to ensure we are still alive in the bear market.